Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 40.436073 44.147985 48.239699 53.122078 58.839675 65.387577 73.549055
2025-02-16 34.537592 39.361974 45.073567 52.467061 61.993559 74.174265 91.505583
2025-02-23 30.934058 36.224095 42.782908 51.755723 64.138484 81.369099 108.754248
2025-03-02 28.224443 33.697894 40.715579 50.723502 65.297533 87.043893 125.167821
2025-03-09 26.274932 31.872588 39.252138 50.155668 66.804924 93.300535 144.463171
2025-03-16 24.295632 29.800939 37.202933 48.422868 66.168560 95.845673 157.860630
2025-03-23 23.706072 29.527728 37.572940 50.220632 71.283929 109.286046 199.669553
2025-03-30 22.598426 28.437686 36.657764 49.908364 72.796776 116.474170 231.668884
2025-04-06 21.521839 27.309741 35.582058 49.198449 73.462656 122.114784 263.569948
2025-04-13 20.304909 25.904918 33.988044 47.477253 72.021163 122.938579 281.860290
2025-04-20 20.003502 25.801104 34.339654 49.000440 76.878464 139.192033 369.285736
2025-04-27 19.690177 25.653322 34.600956 50.382431 81.703517 157.244347 495.588154
2025-05-04 19.100620 25.083309 34.194367 50.616899 84.387849 171.398679 642.877524
2025-05-11 18.411291 24.328360 33.445145 50.164769 85.553800 181.976025 809.022280
2025-05-18 17.741357 23.567372 32.634010 49.512816 86.160247 191.240980 1016.296859
2025-05-25 17.066461 22.765882 31.706205 48.551116 85.890917 197.643106 1246.693576
2025-06-01 16.520940 22.140926 31.035108 48.021380 86.576519 207.934700 1658.547818
2025-06-08 15.819331 21.242182 29.856531 46.403193 84.344258 206.447460 1851.800261
2025-06-15 15.733360 21.311280 30.321103 48.082008 90.755081 243.480890 4638.634694
2025-06-22 15.325164 20.846295 29.837448 47.790576 91.958651 259.268861 9395.273380
2025-06-29 14.882995 20.309231 29.200362 47.127757 92.043716 270.052616 21993.748460
2025-07-06 14.317542 19.553783 28.147377 45.519160 89.252917 264.695782 29433.211422
2025-07-13 14.247639 19.600929 28.512422 46.942816 95.412529 313.546866 NaN